Argentina flips the script: gas now flows north
South America’s gas map just changed. On April 1, 2025, Argentina began sending natural gas to Brazil for the first time, using Bolivia’s pipeline network as a bridge. For a country long known as a seasonal importer, this is a role reversal powered by Vaca Muerta’s shale boom and a rare burst of cross-border coordination.
The opening shipments are modest but meaningful: daily flows start at 2 million cubic meters, with a symbolic first transaction of about 500 cubic meters to test the route. The commercial anchor is a deal linking TotalEnergies Argentina and Brazil’s Matrix Energia, signed toward the end of 2024 and activated this month. In parallel, Tecpetrol—part of the Techint Group—kicked off interruptible sales to Brazilian marketers EDGE and MGAS, adding roughly 250,000 cubic meters per day combined.
Here’s the route. Gas is produced in Neuquén’s Vaca Muerta, moves north through Argentina’s national systems operated by TGN and TGS, then reaches Campo Durán in Salta province. From there it enters the Refinor-operated Madrejones line, crosses into Bolivia, flows through YPFB’s network, and finally drops into the Brazil-Bolivia Gas Pipeline (Gasbol) for delivery to Brazilian buyers.
This is not just a logistics tale. It’s the result of years of work to reverse parts of Argentina’s Northern Gas Pipeline, opening a new export corridor out of the shale basin. It also relies on Brazil’s more open gas market and Bolivia’s willingness to pivot from exporter to transit hub. The outcome: a new lane for regional gas trade that didn’t exist a year ago.
For Argentina, the headline is simple: Argentina gas exports are now reaching Brazil via Bolivia. That sentence would have sounded like fantasy when Argentina was rushing to buy LNG cargoes every winter. Vaca Muerta has altered that story by delivering scale, steady drilling, and growing pipeline capacity.
Why it matters: prices, pipes, and power
The business case is clear. Industrial buyers in Brazil want competitive gas to anchor manufacturing and back up power when hydropower is low. Industry sources point to a sweet spot of $7–$10 per million BTU for Brazilian competitiveness, and pipeline gas from Argentina can line up better than imported LNG on cost and reliability outside peak stress events.
On the Brazilian side, Gasbol can carry up to 30 million cubic meters per day, but is running near a third of that. Bolivian authorities say they plan to lift utilization toward full capacity over the next five years as new flows materialize. That slack is what makes the Argentina-to-Brazil route viable right now without waiting for years of construction.
Bolivia’s role is the quiet story behind the headline. With domestic production under pressure and exports to Argentina tapering, La Paz is turning pipeline capacity into a service business—collecting transit fees, keeping its network relevant, and preserving its place as a strategic energy link. As YPFB’s Armin Dorgathen put it, gas that no longer moves to Argentina can be redirected to Brazil, where demand and pricing are more attractive.
Argentina’s play is bigger than a few million cubic meters. Officials aim to scale exports under a government-to-government framework that allows up to 30 million cubic meters per day to Brazil when capacity and contracts line up. The Northern Gas Pipeline reversal is the enabler; further debottlenecking and compression upgrades could turn today’s pilot flows into a structural trade.
Producers are already behaving as if this is a long-term opportunity. Tecpetrol’s CEO Ricardo Markous called the deal a step toward “opening new regional markets” that can absorb Vaca Muerta’s growth. Interruptible contracts with EDGE and MGAS are a practical way to start—less rigid than firm volumes, flexible around maintenance and seasonal swings—while the parties test operational details like pressure management, nominations, and balancing across three national systems.
There’s a reason the start mattered even if the first batch was tiny. Cross-border gas trade lives or dies on technical trust: gas quality specs, pressure stability, metering, and scheduling. To move Argentine gas up to Campo Durán, blend it into Refinor’s line, balance it in YPFB’s grid, and then match nominations into Gasbol isn’t glamorous work. It is the precondition for every bigger number that gets announced later.
What about Argentina’s own winter? That’s the obvious risk. Domestic demand spikes when temperatures fall, and historically that meant imports surged. The strategy now is to build enough capacity and storage, plus smart contract design, to let exports keep flowing even in colder months—or at least maintain some baseline while power generators and industry at home are supplied. Expect seasonal clauses and price signals to do a lot of heavy lifting.
Brazil, for its part, has reshaped its gas market in recent years to invite more competition. Private marketers like Matrix Energia, EDGE, and MGAS have emerged alongside traditional players, making room for cross-border molecules that don’t come from the old single-supplier model. Flexible pipeline access and more transparent tariffs are making trades like this possible without a new mega-project.
Pricing is where the deal either sticks or slips. If Argentina’s gas can land in Brazil at the low end of that $7–$10 per million BTU band, it becomes a real rival to LNG except during global spikes. If not, volumes will stay opportunistic. Transit fees in Bolivia and tariffs along the chain will be watched closely; so will exchange-rate risk on the Argentine side, which can snarl payments and hedging if not managed.
The engineering puzzle is on the move too. Gasbol was designed for Bolivian exports into Brazil; today it’s being asked to accommodate Argentine flows transiting Bolivia. That means careful control of pressure and flow direction along segments, quality specs that work for Brazilian industrial users and power plants, and coordinated maintenance windows so one bottleneck doesn’t strand gas upstream.
Winners? Three, if it holds. Argentina gets a new outlet for Vaca Muerta, helps its trade balance, and builds a reputation as a reliable supplier rather than a stop-start exporter. Brazil gets a priced-to-compete alternative that reduces exposure to LNG volatility during drought years. Bolivia earns stable transit income and keeps itself central to the Southern Cone’s energy map even as its own production evolves.
There’s also a climate angle that’s more practical than ideological. Pipeline gas generally carries a lower emissions footprint than spot LNG once you factor in liquefaction and shipping—assuming methane leaks are controlled. If Argentina, Bolivia, and Brazil enforce tight leak detection and repair along the route, the carbon arithmetic tilts further in favor of pipeline supply for Brazilian industry.
The politics are aligned for now. Buenos Aires wants to reactivate investment and prove that Vaca Muerta can anchor exports to multiple neighbors. Brasília wants cheaper gas to support industry and power reliability. La Paz wants to monetize infrastructure it already has. The government-to-government umbrella that allows up to 30 million cubic meters per day is the framework tying those interests together.
None of this is automatic. To reach anything like that 30 million-cubic-meter ceiling, Argentina will need more compression and storage, plus steady drilling to keep well productivity up. Bolivia will need to maintain network integrity and tariff clarity. Brazil will need to keep access rules open and power-sector demand flexible enough to absorb swings. Contracts will need firming up, with winter rules defined up front.
Still, the first flows matter. They prove the commercial logic and the physics. TotalEnergies and Matrix provide the template on firming up volumes. Tecpetrol shows how interruptible deals can stitch in extra molecules. With Gasbol running at a third of capacity, there’s room to grow before anyone has to lay a new pipe.
If you’re looking for a single sentence that captures the shift: Argentina is no longer just the country that buys gas in the winter; it’s now the country that can sell gas year-round to the region when the pipes and prices line up. That’s a big change, and it’s only just getting started.
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